Blue Planet Prize Story

After the release of EM-DAT, the number of users around the world increased rapidly. The database attracted a diverse range of users, from students and UN organizations, to relief agencies, and nation’s militaries. For countries with limited resources for their own disaster data collection, EM-DAT’s open and free access proved invaluable. Students around the world found EM-DAT to be a valuable source for research and academic papers. After eight years of trial and error, Professor Guha-Sapir finally felt that they had achieved something truly significant.

EM-DAT

EM-DAT framework

EM-DAT is a comprehensive database of major natural disasters that have occurred since 1900, currently covering 184 countries worldwide.

When a disaster occurs, the first reports arrive from major news agencies like AFP (Agence France-Presse), AP (Associated Press), and Reuters, detailing the location and nature of the event. Subsequently, information flows in from various organizations and entities, including the Red Cross, UN agencies, insurance companies, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), NGOs, and civil society organizations.

These reports are scrutinized and the database is updated accordingly. Immediately following a disaster, reported figures may vary depending on the source; however, these discrepancies typically dissipate within a few weeks.

Drawing upon the expertise of experienced professionals and incorporating final figures provided by UN agencies, the Red Cross, and governments, a highly refined database has been established. Furthermore, continuous information follow-up ensures data accuracy. Through meticulous cross-referencing of data from diverse sources, EM-DAT guarantees the consistency and reliability of its information.

Disaster classification

EM-DAT classifies disasters into two major categories: natural disasters and technological disasters. Technological disasters include the bridge collapses, ship accidents, and large truck accidents. Each disaster is then summarized using three key components: physical characteristics (size and level), human impact (number of fatalities, injured, homeless, etc.), and economic impact (affected industries and the extent of the damage).

For example, when a natural disaster occurs, it is classified into further categories. If it is a flood, it is divided into subcategories such as river floods, flash floods, coastal floods, or tsunami. The database also includes the date and region of each disaster. EM-DAT allows users to search and freely download a broad range of information based on various criteria, such as disaster size, type, time period, and region where the disaster occurred.

Specifically, the database encompasses natural disasters that fall into one of the following four conditions:

Natural disasters are classified into the following six subgroups:

Professor Guha-Sapir points out two crucial points from EM-DAT’s data on natural disasters over the past 20 years.

The first is a sharp rise in climate-related disasters, namely hydrological, meteorological, and climatological disasters, as a proportion of overall disasters. Professor Guha-Sapir states that floods account for 43%, nearly half, of all the natural disasters worldwide, followed by storms, accounting for about 30%. Together, floods and storms comprise approximately 70% of all natural disasters. Earthquakes follow with 8%, extreme temperatures (heat and cold waves) account for 6% (though the actual figure may be higher), and landslides and droughts make up 5%. As of 2023, approximately 90% of all disasters in the past eight years are climate related. EM-DAT data clearly demonstrates that climate-related disasters have far surpassed earthquakes and volcanic eruptions within the overall disaster landscape.

The second point is the obvious increase in the severity of individual disasters. The scale of damage caused by each natural disaster has increased, affecting a larger number of people. Professor Guha-Sapir attributes this trend to the rising population density in hazard-prone areas. Climate disasters, beyond their direct damage, can also exacerbate poverty by causing the loss of household breadwinners, parents raising children, or by worsening sanitation due to environmental destruction and the increasing the number of pests, which can lead to the spread of disease.

Professor Guha-Sapir also believes that these changes are the result of climate change caused by global warming.

Utilization of EM-DAT

Today, EM-DAT is widely recognized and utilized around the world as a scientifically reliable disaster database. It serves as a fundamental resource for data analysis by research units of UN agencies, World Health Organization (WHO), and university researchers. In addition, EM-DAT is employed by NGOs and activists for policy advocacy purposes. Furthermore, it plays an important role in the development of global reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Bank.

Here are two concrete examples of how EM-DAT is being used.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has published a report on the status of weather, climate, and water-related disasters from 1970 to 2019, based on disaster data from EM-DAT. For example, a graph of deaths by disaster type for each decade shows that there were many deaths from droughts in the 1970s and 1980s, but that this number significantly decreased in the 1990s, but has been increasing due to extreme temperatures (such as heatwaves) since the 2000s.

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Source: World Meteorological Organization. (2021). Figure 4. Distribution of (a) number of disasters, (b) number of deaths and (c) economic losses by hazard type by decade globally. "WMO ATLAS OF MORTALITY AND ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER EXTREMES (1970–2019)."

Another example comes from a report compiled by the International Red Cross. This report summarizes the status of disasters based on information from various databases, including EM-DAT. For example, a distribution map of the number of people affected and killed in disasters in 2019 reveals that many disaster-related deaths were concentrated in developing countries, particularly in Africa and South Asia.

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Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. (2020). Figure 2.29: Number of people affected and killed by disasters in 2019. "WORLD DISASTERS REPORT 2020 COME HEAT OR HIGH WATER."

Professor Guha-Sapir also points out the necessity of not overlooking important factors when using the data. For example, we may tend to think that the larger the economic loss caused by a disaster, the larger the disaster itself. However, while those things that have monetary value are recorded as economic loss, loss such as deaths or disabilities are not recorded as economic loss.

For instance, nearly 90% of disasters in Africa go unrecorded in terms of their economic losses. This is due to the disparity in wealth between countries, which can skew the assessment of the severity of damage, leading to a significantly different understanding of the actual situation.

While global data suggests a decline in the number of people affected by floods, the number of victims in Africa alone is increasing. This highlights the risk of overlooking the situation in specific regions when making judgments based solely on global data.

Up until now, Professor Guha-Sapir and her team have been verifying and accumulating information provided by countries and international organizations. However, to address these issues, they have already started working on their next step, which includes the direct collection of raw data using satellites.

4. Preparing for Future Disasters