2. The Great Transformation in Meteorology
Beginning of Numerical Weather Forecast
When Taroh entered graduate school, meteorology was at a turning point. Weather forecasting was changing from a forecast based on weather maps and the forecaster's experience to a ‘numerical weather forecast' which calculates future pressure and wind by following laws of physics based on weather map data. The advent of computers in the 1950s made it possible to perform massive calculations, rapidly advancing research in this field.
Activities aimed at introducing numerical weather forecasting in Japan were also carried out in the meteorology laboratory at the University of Tokyo. Taroh and other members of the laboratory formed the Tokyo Numerical Forecasting Group in collaboration with researchers from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Meteorological Research Institute. They conducted preliminary research based on studies in the United States and initiated efforts to introduce computers, which were necessary for numerical forecasting.
Thanks to their efforts, the Japan Meteorological Agency introduced a state-of-the-art supercomputer and began operational numerical weather forecasting. At that time, it remained uncertain whether numerical forecasting would improve the accuracy of weather forecasts. Nevertheless, the Japan Meteorological Agency's decision to purchase the supercomputer at a substantial cost was a visionary move, demonstrating its commitment to the future of numerical weather forecasting.
Despite the introduction of numerical weather forecasting, the accuracy of weather forecasts did not improve as expected. Today, numerical forecasting has been established, and it forms the foundation of weather forecasting in many countries, with the use of a wide variety of meteorological observation data such as ground-based weather observations, upper-level temperature and humidity measurements from radiosonde, and meteorological satellites. However, computers were not powerful enough at that time, and there was a lack of global meteorological observation data.
Under such circumstances, Taroh turned his interest towards clarifying the mechanisms of long-term weather phenomena rather than short-term forecasts, while also conducting research to advance numerical weather forecasting to the next level.
In a paper published in 1966, Taroh and his colleagues theoretically predicted the existence of specific atmospheric waves near the equator, known as Kelvin waves and mixed Rossby-gravity waves. Although the world of meteorology is complex and theoretical prediction is challenging, these waves were later confirmed to exist in the atmosphere and oceans by other researchers. Taroh said that he was relieved, thinking, "We were right after all."
The El Niño phenomenon occurs once every few years in the equatorial Pacific, particularly near the South American coast. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures become higher than usual, and this condition lasts for about six months to a year and a half. Kelvin waves are now known to play an important role in this phenomenon.
After earning his doctorate, Dr. Matsuno chose a career in education and to further his research. He became an associate professor in the Faculty of Science at Kyushu University's Faculty of Science, and he also conducted research at Washington University and Princeton University in the United States. During this time, he achieved remarkable accomplishments, including elucidating the mechanism of stratospheric sudden warming, which was a previously poorly understood phenomenon. He said that focusing on the basics and accumulating research led to practical discoveries.
Supporting Research in Japan
After the advent of computers, it became possible for humans to launch satellites to observe meteorological phenomena from space. The establishment of a global real-time meteorological data exchange system facilitated the development of a weather prediction system that simulates atmospheric conditions on computers while monitoring global phenomena using satellites. In the United States and Europe, the infrastructure to support research was established early on, and a well-equipped research environment was developing, including facilities such as computers.
On the other hand, in Japan, inspired by developments in the United States, a movement arose in the 1960s to create new research opportunities. However, due to the government's financial situation, this movement failed to materialize. In this context, many outstanding Japanese researchers, including Dr. Syukuro Manabe, one of the two first Blue Planet Prize laureates, went to the United States and conducted world leading research there.
Upon returning to Japan, Dr. Matsuno, based on his experience conducting research in the United States, was convinced that computers could clarify the mechanisms of complex phenomena. And as the most senior researcher in this field who remained in Japan, he understood that it was his mission to enable advanced research in Japan in this area.
